Tracking Growth Factor for Louisiana cases
- March 9: 1 case
- March 10: 5 new cases
- March 11: 7 new cases for a Growth factor of 7/5 = 1.40
- March 12: 6 new cases for a Growth factor of 6/7 = 0.86
- March 13: 17 new cases for a Growth factor of 17/6 = 2.83
- March 14: 41 new cases for a Growth factor of 41/17 = 2.41
- March 15: 26 new cases for a Growth factor of 26/41 = 0.63
- March 16: 33 new cases for a Growth factor of 33/26 = 1.27
- March 17: 60 new cases for a Growth factor of 60/33 = 1.82
- March 18: 84 new cases for a Growth factor of 84/60 = 1.40
- March 19: 112 new cases for a Growth factor of 112/84 = 1.33
- March 20: 145 new cases for a Growth factor of 145/112 = 1.29
- March 21: 226 new cases for a Growth factor of 226/145 = 1.56
What is this?
Growth factor equals the ratio between the number of new cases one day and the number of new cases the previous day. (today/previous)
We want to see the number slowly decrease to one. That is the “Inflection point,” the point at which new cases begin to drop.
The total number of cases is going to max out at about two times wherever you are when you hit the inflection point.
Source: CDC video on “Exponential growth and epidemics”
Tracking Growth Rate for Louisiana cases
- March 15: (103-77)/77 = 34%
- March 16: (136-103)/103 = 32%
- March 17: (196-136)/136 = 44%
- March 18: (280-196)/196 = 43%
- March 19: (392-280)/280 = 40%
- March 20: (537-392)/392 = 37%
- March 21: (763-537)/537 = 42%
What is this?
Growth rate equals
(today’s count minus yesterday’s count) divided by yesterday’s count
Prediction:
Louisiana’s growth rate has been hovering around 40% (by my own measurements)
At this rate, the amount of cases doubles every two days.
If that rate continues, when you wake up next Sunday we will have 8,832 cases.
If we could slow growth rate to 30%, when you wake up next Sunday we will have 5,252 cases.